{"id":20777,"date":"2025-08-26T06:09:21","date_gmt":"2025-08-26T06:09:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wp-api.pocketful.in\/blog\/?p=20777"},"modified":"2025-08-26T06:09:21","modified_gmt":"2025-08-26T06:09:21","slug":"trump-tariffs-on-india","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wp-api.pocketful.in\/blog\/trump-tariffs-on-india\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump Tariffs on India: Trade vs Russian Oil"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A new crisis has erupted in India\u2013US relations after the Trump administration imposed tariffs on Indian exports linked to India\u2019s purchases of Russian crude. Meanwhile, India is set to meet about 36-40% of its total crude oil imports from Russian oil in 2024-25, leading to huge energy savings and keeping domestic prices in check.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now the question is: Will India give up its cheap energy and prioritize the US market, or will it maintain energy security by losing trade benefits?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_65 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-transparent ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title \" >Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/wp-api.pocketful.in\/blog\/trump-tariffs-on-india\/#Why_India_Relies_on_Russian_Oil\" title=\"Why India Relies on Russian Oil\">Why India Relies on Russian Oil<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/wp-api.pocketful.in\/blog\/trump-tariffs-on-india\/#Chronology_of_the_Tariff_Escalation\" title=\"Chronology of the Tariff Escalation\">Chronology of the Tariff Escalation<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/wp-api.pocketful.in\/blog\/trump-tariffs-on-india\/#Comparative_Impact_Oil_Savings_vs_Trade_Losses\" title=\"Comparative Impact: Oil Savings vs Trade Losses\">Comparative Impact: Oil Savings vs Trade Losses<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/wp-api.pocketful.in\/blog\/trump-tariffs-on-india\/#Impact_on_US-India_trade_relations\" title=\"Impact on US-India trade relations\">Impact on US-India trade relations<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/wp-api.pocketful.in\/blog\/trump-tariffs-on-india\/#Impact_of_cheap_Russian_crude_on_India_and_investors\" title=\"Impact of cheap Russian crude on India and investors\">Impact of cheap Russian crude on India and investors<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/wp-api.pocketful.in\/blog\/trump-tariffs-on-india\/#Conclusion\" title=\"Conclusion\">Conclusion<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/wp-api.pocketful.in\/blog\/trump-tariffs-on-india\/#Frequently_Asked_Questions_FAQs\" title=\"Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)\">Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-why-india-relies-on-russian-oil\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_India_Relies_on_Russian_Oil\"><\/span>Why India Relies on Russian Oil<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>After the Western sanctions on Ukraine, India increased its imports of Russian oil. Now, by January-June 2025, India is meeting about 34% of its total crude oil consumption from Russia, which was less than 2% earlier. In the entire financial year 2024\u201325, the share of Russian oil in India&#8217;s total oil imports reached about 36%, while the share of the Middle East (OPEC) declined to 48.5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Heavy dependence on oil<\/strong>: India imports more than 85% of its total crude oil needs, making the country dependent on global markets for energy security.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Discount is a big reason for the shift towards Russian crude:<\/strong> After the Ukraine crisis in 2022, Russia sold oil at a huge discount amid Western sanctions. On this occasion, India increased its inclination towards Russian oil. Earlier this share was only less than 2%, but now it has reached about 40%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Year-on-year savings :&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table has-small-font-size\"><table><thead><tr><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Year<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Part of Russia<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Savings (estimated)<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>FY22\u201323<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">23%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">$5.1 billion<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>FY23\u201324<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">35%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">$7.9 billion<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Resorting to long-term contracts and diversification strategies: <\/strong>Many refiners are ensuring supplies, especially from government term deals (barter annual\/long-term contracts) to mitigate any volatility or sudden cuts from Russia. It is not easy to stop such contracts suddenly, so private companies like Reliance, Nayara Energy are continuing to buy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Direction of change: <\/strong>Looking for alternative sources: Government refiners like BPCL are now increasing supplies from the Middle East (such as Omani oil), especially in January to make up for the shortage of Russian oil. In addition, the country has started buying oil from 39 countries, earlier this number was 27, ensuring energy security and diversity of options.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-chronology-of-the-tariff-escalation\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Chronology_of_the_Tariff_Escalation\"><\/span>Chronology of the Tariff Escalation<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The recent tariff dispute between the US and India is not just a trade dispute, but an issue deeply intertwined with geopolitical tensions and energy policy. In July\u2013August 2025, the Trump administration put direct pressure on many of India\u2019s export sectors by raising tariffs in two phases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>1. First blow &#8211; 25% \u201creciprocal\u201d tariff (July 30, 2025) : <\/strong>In an executive order issued from the White House on July 30, 2025, the US administration announced the imposition of a 25% reciprocal tariff. Its rationale was that this duty is being imposed in response to the tariffs imposed by India on some products coming from the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Affected sectors:<\/strong> Categories such as textiles, gems and jewellery, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and shrimp.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Effective date:<\/strong> From August 1, 2025.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2. Second blow &#8211; Additional 25% \u201cpenalty\u201d (August 6, 2025) : <\/strong>Another order was issued on August 6, 2025, adding an additional 25% penalty tariff. This was directly linked to India\u2019s continued imports of Russian crude oil, which the Trump administration viewed as \u201cfinancial support to Russia\u2019s war machine.\u201d The total tariff after this penalty became 50%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Effective date :<\/strong> 21 days after the August 6 order, i.e. from August 27, 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>3. Exemption for goods in transit : <\/strong>The US made a provision that if the shipment was in transit before the order was issued and arrived on time, it would be exempt from the new tariff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table has-small-font-size\"><table><thead><tr><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Date<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Action<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Outcome<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">July 30, 2025<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">25%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">First set of punitive duties imposed on India<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">6 August 2025<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Additional 25% penalty (on Russian oil)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Total tariff rate increased to 50%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">27 August 2025 (Estimated)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Inclusion of shipments already in transit<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Full-scale implementation of tariffs<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-comparative-impact-oil-savings-vs-trade-losses\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Comparative_Impact_Oil_Savings_vs_Trade_Losses\"><\/span>Comparative Impact: Oil Savings vs Trade Losses<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>India currently faces a balancing challenge on the one hand, the savings from cheap oil from Russia, and on the other, the threat of nearly 50% tariffs from the US that could hit its key export sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\" id=\"h-what-do-the-facts-and-figures-say\">What do the facts and figures say?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>The scale of oil savings : <\/strong>According to an ICRA report, India saved about $5.1 billion by buying discounted crude from Russia in FY23. Another projection suggests that the discounts have enabled annual savings of $7.9 billion in 11 months of FY24.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>The chilling effect of the 50% tariff :<\/strong>Recent reports suggest that the tariffs imposed by Trump could threaten India\u2019s US exports worth about $87 billion. Textiles, jewellery, pharma and petrochemicals critical exports are constantly at risk.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Oil Import Reduction and 25% tariff hit : <\/strong>Even if India reduces Russian oil imports and only the 25% tariff stays in place, trade losses of up to $8\u201315 billion are expected.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-impact-on-us-india-trade-relations\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Impact_on_US-India_trade_relations\"><\/span>Impact on US-India trade relations<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In early 2025, PM Modi and President Trump set a trade goal called \u201cMission 500\u201d, seeking to take bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. But the Trump administration\u2019s displeasure over India\u2019s oil purchases from Russia brought a wave of tariffs instead a dampener on India-US trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\" id=\"h-1-tariff-policy-benefits-domestic-industry\">1. Tariff policy benefits domestic industry<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Tariffs have another side: adding to domestic industries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The PHD Chamber report shows that 25% tariffs would impact exports worth about $8.1 billion, but the impact on overall GDP would be just 0.19% and on global exports 1.87%, as India\u2019s economy is diversified. In response, the chamber has laid out four-fold strategies:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bundle pricing agreements with global retailers (e.g. Walmart, Amazon)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Development of premium product options<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Expanding trade to new markets (EU, Canada, Latin America)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Increasing production in the US through on-shore partnerships.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\" id=\"h-2-india-s-strategic-positioning-in-the-global-market\">2. India\u2019s strategic positioning in the global market<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The tariff dispute has brought about several changes in India\u2019s foreign policy.According to the Financial Times, while the two countries have started off on a positive note in 2025, the trade dispute has dented the Indo-Pacific strategy Quad meetings are in jeopardy, and India\u2019s ties with China-Russia appear to be strengthening. At the same time, a July report by NITI Aayog shows that the tariff structure in the US has given India an advantage over American competitors in 22 key export categories such as electronics and automobiles. Furthermore, while taking over the Chairmanship of BRICS, Prime Minister Modi has proposed to redefine the organization as \u201cResilience and Innovation\u201d, which brings out India&#8217;s multi-pronged strategic strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-impact-of-cheap-russian-crude-on-india-and-investors\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Impact_of_cheap_Russian_crude_on_India_and_investors\"><\/span>Impact of cheap Russian crude on India and investors<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>India has imported record-low crude oil from Russia, which has reduced the country&#8217;s oil import bill. This is giving the government the benefit of revenue savings and helping in controlling fuel inflation. Its indirect effect for investors is that if petrol and diesel prices remain stable, the operating costs of transport, FMCG and manufacturing companies may reduce. This may lead to margin improvement in the stocks of these sectors and potential growth in stock prices. Brokerage houses are also monitoring this trend so that correct sector-based investment advice can be given to clients.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-conclusion\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Conclusion\"><\/span>Conclusion<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Buying cheap crude from Russia has been a profitable deal for India. This has kept fuel prices under control and the government&#8217;s import bill has also come down. This has reflected in the stock market, especially on oil, gas and shipping companies. But the way forward is not completely clear. International conditions, sanctions and price fluctuations can change the situation. It is wise for investors to think long-term and assess the current global conditions before taking a decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-frequently-asked-questions-faqs\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Frequently_Asked_Questions_FAQs\"><\/span>Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"saswp-faq-block-section\"><ol style=\"list-style-type:none\"><li style=\"list-style-type: none\"><h3 class=\"\">What are the \u201cTrump Tariffs on India\u201d?<\/h3><p class=\"saswp-faq-answer-text\">The Trump administration imposed tariffs in two phases: a 25% reciprocal duty and an additional 25% penalty tied to Russian oil, raising total tariffs to 50%.<\/p><li style=\"list-style-type: none\"><h3 class=\"\">How much of India\u2019s crude now comes from Russia?<\/h3><p class=\"saswp-faq-answer-text\">As of 2025, Russia supplies roughly 34 percent of India\u2019s crude oil imports.<\/p><li style=\"list-style-type: none\"><h3 class=\"\">Will India cut Russian oil now?<\/h3><p class=\"saswp-faq-answer-text\">The government has indicated that Russian oil imports will continue in the near term, supported by existing term contracts and diversification through alternative suppliers for energy security.<\/p><li style=\"list-style-type: none\"><h3 class=\"\">What should Indian exporters do right now?<\/h3><p class=\"saswp-faq-answer-text\">Look at alternative markets, tune pricing\/FX-hedging, and keep supply-chain\/finishing flexible.<\/p><li style=\"list-style-type: none\"><h3 class=\"\">What\u2019s the potential GDP impact for India?<\/h3><p class=\"saswp-faq-answer-text\">Analysts estimate that if tariffs continue for a long time, GDP growth could be reduced by 0.3-0.4%.<\/p><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A new crisis has erupted in India\u2013US relations after the Trump administration imposed tariffs on Indian exports linked to India\u2019s purchases of Russian crude. Meanwhile, India is set to meet about 36-40% of its total crude oil imports from Russian oil in 2024-25, leading to huge energy savings and keeping domestic prices in check. Now [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":20780,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"is_paper_insight":false,"paper_insight_image":0,"paper_insight_pdf":0,"paper_insight_ppt":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20777","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-case-study"],"acf":{"freelancer":"Harjyot"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v20.13 (Yoast SEO v21.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>US Tariffs on India: $7.9B Oil Savings vs $87B Export Risk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore the Trump tariffs on India, rising to 50%, and their clash with India\u2019s Russian oil imports, trade risks, and economic implications.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, 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